Appendix L: A. L. Tchijevsky’s Theory of Sunspot Activity and Human Activity
From the book Reckoning of Time
The sun “flip upside down” as its magnetic field reverses polarity in an event that sends ripple effects throughout the solar system. The sun switches its polarity, flipping its magnetic north and south, once every eleven years through an internal mechanism about which little is understood. It was not until the first half of the 20th century that scientists began to understand what causes the sunspot cycle. Researchers have determined that the sunspots are a magnetic phenomenon directly correlated to the magnetism of the sun with its north and south magnetic poles which is constantly on the move. They have found that the magnetic material inside the sun is constantly stretching, twisting, and crossing bubbling up to the surface. The exact pattern of movements is unknown, but over time they eventually lead to the poles reversing completely.
In other words, the sunspot cycle is a function of this pole flip — north becomes south and south becomes north—happening approximately every eleven years. About eleven years later, the poles reverse again back, making the full solar cycle actually a 22-year phenomenon. The sun behaves similarly over the course of each 11-year cycle no matter which pole is on “top.”
Historically, research has been conducted to link the 11-year cycle of the sun to changes in human behavior and society. The most famous research was done by Professor A. L. Tchijevsky, a Russian scientist, who presented a paper to the American Meteorological Society at Philadelphia in the late 19th century. He observed the following facts based upon statistics gathered beginning with the V century B.C. and ending with his present day in 1922 A.D:
1. As soon as the sun-spot activity approaches its maximum, the number of important mass historical events, taken as a whole, increases, approaching its maximum during the sun-spot maximum and decreasing to its minimum during the epochs of the sun-spot minimum.
2. In each century the rise of the universal military and political activity is observed exactly nine times. This circumstance enables us to reckon that a cycle of universal human activity embraces eleven years (in the arithmetical mean).
3. Each cycle is divided into four parts (periods):
I. Minimum of excitability 3 years
II. growth of excitability 2 years
III. maximum excitability 3 years
IV. decline excitability 3 years
Tchijevsky’s eleven-year cycle and their approximate lengths: 1) a three-year period of minimum activity characterized by passivity and autocratic rule; 2) a two-year period during which masses begin to organize under new leaders and one theme; 3) a three-year period of maximum excitability, revolution and war; 4) a three-year period of gradual decrease in excitability until the masses are apathetic.
4. The number of historical events in each cycle are distributed approximately according to the data for 500 years (XV—XX cent.) in the following manner (in the mean):
I period 5%
II period 20%
III period 60%
IV period 15%
5. In the middle points of the cycle the mass activity of humanity all over the surface of the Earth, reaches the maximum tension, manifesting itself in psycomotoric pandemics: revolutions, insurrections, migrations etc., creating new formations in the existence of separate states and new historical epochs in the life of humanity. It is accompanied by an integration of the masses, a full expression of their activity and a form of government consisting of a majority.
In correlation with the sun-spot maximum stand, he observed that the masses were influenced by popular and military leaders, speakers, and press; ideas being circulated in masses. Also, swiftness in development of popular movements, such as increase of territory sweep, integration of masses, individualization of collectives, and high dynamics of masses. This resulted in moving forward of popular and military leaders, statesmen; triumph of ideas that were supported by masses; maximal raise of parliamentary rights; democratic and social reforms; democracy, constraining of autocracy; revolutions, rebellions, mutinies, wars, expeditions, campaigns, emigrations, campaigns, persecutions and other outbursts of large-scale people’s activity.
In the extreme points of the cycle’s course the tension of the all-human military-political activity falls to the minimum, ceding the way to creative activity and is accompanied by a general decrease of military or political enthusiasm and a disintegration of the masses. This lead to differentiation of masses, apathy to social matters, peaceable disposition of masses, tractability, tolerance, depression, and static character of masses. Tchijevsky discovered that the solar minimum is the lag period when repression is tolerated by the masses, as if they lacked the vital energy to make the needed changes.
Thus he established the existence of a dependence between the sun-spot activity and the behavior of humanity from the V Century B.C. to the XX Century A.D.
In the 1930s, Professor Raymond Wheeler, a historian at the University of Kansas, took this observation one step further by giving numerical rankings to the severity of human activities correlating to the solar cycles.
His data was statistically analyzed by Edward Dewey, who validated the existence of these war cycles. Upon close examination of the data, a pattern begins to emerge where wars are most likely to start in key points of the sunspot cycle namely when the geomagnetic activity changes most rapidly on the upsurge of solar activity, or the downward part of the cycle, when sunspots rapidly diminish. In addition, this phenomenon affects physiological mechanisms, such as altered brain rhythms and other abnormal physiological processes. In other words, wars are a kind of mass psychosis related to socio-political or economic factors caused by the solar cycles. And when such a connection to the electromagnetic activities of the sun is observed, some predictive insight for increased aggressions, terrorism, and even wars may be made.
(Source: http://www.world-mysteries.com/newgw/sci_solarcycle1.htm)
In conclusion of the matter, the present author is in opinion,that if that was true for the course of the last 2,500 years, would this trend be kept in the last years of this world, too?